On July 15th, Tokyo Kantei Co., Ltd., a real estate data aggregation firm,  announced monthly changes in average rents for condominiums in the Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) for June of 2021.

The data is calculated by dividing average rents by the average size of units contracted providing an average rent per square meter across the four prefectures that make up the GTA; Tokyo, Saitama, Kanagawa and Chiba prefectures.

The average rent in the GTA according to Tokyo Kantei was JPY 3,275 (up 0.4% from the previous month).

Broken down by the four prefectures of the GTA according to Tokyo Kantei

Tokyo prefecture came in at 3,727 avg yen per sqm (down 0.1% year-on-year), weakening for the third straight month.

Kanagawa prefecture saw a 0.4% increase at 2,404 avg yen per sqm.

Saitama prefecture a 2.0% increase coming in with 1,810 avg yen per sqm.

Chiba prefecture saw a 0.3% increase at 1,761 avg yen per sqm.

In short, while Tokyo continues a multi-month downward trend, the neighbouring prefectures are increasing their averages.  Those increases combined with Tokyo's generally higher rent level overall, provides the JPY 3,275 rent per sqm average published by Tokyo Kantei.

However, breaking down Tokyo prefecture even further between 23 ward vs non-23 ward areas, Savills Research shows a more nuanced picture in their Tokyo Residential Leasing Q2/2021 published July 7th of 2021.

The TL:DR of the Savills Research Report

Rents in the Tokyo 23 wards saw a mild decline of 2.0% quarter-on-quarter and 4.0% year-on-year to JPY 3,964 per sq m in Q2/2021

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Average mid-market rents in the central five wards have continued their descent and are currently at JPY 4,670 per sqm – a fall of 1.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.8% year-on-year.

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The central five ward premium has marginally increased to 17.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the last quarter.

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At the ward level, only a few areas posted positive growth on a quarterly basis. Here, Toshima in the Inner North marked the strongest growth this quarter with a modest gain of 0.9%. On an annual basis, Katsushika took the crown, with rents rising by 5.7%.

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In the central five wards, average rents for units in the 15-30 sqm size band have seen a correction this quarter and currently remain the least expensive size band in a complete reversal of the historic trend.

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The average occupancy rate in the Tokyo 23 wards decreased by 0.7ppts to 95.4%.  The central five wards, meanwhile, also saw a decline with the rate contracting by 0.9ppts to 94.2%.

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Notable demographic changes have taken place in Tokyo since the pandemic began, with the Tokyo 23 wards population seeing a material decline.  In contrast, western regions of Tokyo have seen a rise in their populations.

Further Reading

Tokyo Residential Leasing Q2/2021 (Savills Research; July 7th, 2021)