On May 28, the Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) issued their latest medium-term forecast for the price of brand-new apartments in Tokyo’s 23 wards. As we saw last year, price predictions have again been revised upwards from earlier forecasts. In 2019, the average new apartment price is forecast to be 1,065,000 Yen/sqm, up 0.4% from 2018 and 7.7% than an earlier forecast. 

In 2020, the price is expected to drop slightly to 1,064,000 Yen/sqm. By 2025 it is forecast to be 1,024,000 Yen/sqm.

For the rental market, the average monthly rent of a new apartment in 2019 is forecast to reach 3,470 Yen/sqm, up 2.1% from last year. It is forecast to continue to increase by 2025.

Forecasting future property prices is an impossible task for even the largest research institutes and data can be unreliable due to the unpredictable nature of the market and the factors influencing it.  Back in 2014, the Institute forecasted that the average price of a new apartment would be 816,000 Yen/sqm in 2020, while the most recent forecast puts it at 1,064,000 Yen/sqm (a 30.4% difference).

The Institute has been providing property market forecasts for Tokyo’s 23 wards since 1998. Reports are based on their own housing market index, GDP, private housing investment and population trends. New apartment prices and rents are based on standard apartments sized between 40 ~ 80 sqm.

Source: Japan Property Central, The Japan Real Estate Institute, May 28, 2019

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