On December 21st, The Real Estate Economic Institute announced their forecast for the condominium market in the Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) and Greater Osaka Area for 2022.

As per the report, the supply of condominiums in the GTA in 2021 is expected to finish out at 32,500 units, up 19.4% Year-on-Year (YoY). 

Looking ahead to 2022, the Institute forecasts new condo supply in the GTA to reach 34,000 units (up 4.6% YoY), with the largest increases in Tokyo’s non-23 wards, Saitama and Chiba prefectures. 

According to the Institute, the popularity of condos has recovered since the onset of the pandemic.  Housing needs remain high, and both major and medium-sized developers are expected to most aggressively supply units in the suburbs. 

As such, Tokyo’s 23 wards are forecasted to see a 1.4% YoY decrease in 2022 to 14,000 units.

In contrast, Tokyo’s non-23 ward is expected to see a significant increase of 3,500 units (up 34.6% YoY), with Saitama Prefecture recovering to 4,500 units (up 21.6% YoY) and Chiba Prefecture expected to increase 4,500 units in supply (up 18.4% YoY). 

The sole expected decrease is in Kanagawa Prefecture, forecasted at 7,500 units (down 8.5% YoY).

The supply of condominiums in the Greater Osaka Area is expected to finish out 2021 at 18,100 units (up 19.1% YoY), recovering to 2019 supply levels, and is forecasted to increase in 2022 only slightly to 18,500 units (up 2.2% YoY) due to the continued impact of price hikes.

Further Reading

The Real Estate Economic Institute’s 2022 GTA & Greater Osaka Condo Market Forecast Report (Japanese only; December, 2021)