On October 11, 2018, the new Toyosu Fish Market will open its doors, and the old location of the world's largest fish market, Tsukiji, will permanently close. There has been a lot of speculation over the last few years as to what will happen to the former site, which is located in Chuo-ku, one of Tokyo’s five central wards, and right next to Ginza—one of the city's most expensive areas in terms of land prices and rent.

Below is an overview of what has been decided and what is nothing more than rumours with regards to the future of the old Tsukiji Fish Market.

What is confirmed

Outer Market staying put

Many people are not aware that the Outer Market of Tsukiji will actually remain open. The Outer Market is the part of the market most visited by tourists. It consists of a maze of over 500 shops selling fish products, dried seaweed, sushi knives and related goods, as well as various restaurants and sushi joints.

As the general assumption is that this part of the market will close, and this myth is even being propagated by some tour guides, frustrated shop owners have launched a "We’re not moving!" campaign to publicise the fact that they are staying put. The word is being spread via their website, posters and a campaign asking the public to suggest a new name for the Outer Market, to be used after the move.

The area takes up a fairly large part of the current Tsukiji expanse and will not be subject to redevelopment.

Completion of Arterial Road No. 2

It has been confirmed by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government that part of the land will be used to finally complete and close Arterial Road No. 2. The construction of this road began more than 70 years ago, and its completion is planned for 2022. The road runs partly through some of the land Tsukiji currently sits on. The last section to be added will be 3.4 km long and connect the Tokyo Bay Islands of Kachidoki, Harumi, Ariake and Toyosu with Shimbashi, greatly improving road access to these areas.

It was first nicknamed "Olympic Road" as its completion was originally planned in time for the 2020 Games and would have provided a convenient route between the Olympic facilities on the Tokyo Islands of Ariake and Harumi and the stadium in central Tokyo. But with the market relocation delay, it won’t be ready in time and a smaller road is planned instead as a temporary measure, with completion of that scheduled by the end of 2018.

Temporary transport hub

The remainder of the Tsukiji grounds will be transformed into a temporary transportation hub for the Olympics. Large enough to accommodate a total of 3,000 cars and buses, the depot will serve as a transportation facility for the athletes and staff of the Tokyo Olympics. With the Olympic Village located on Kachidoki, with rather inconvenient subway access, the games will depend on this for smooth transport.

What is up in the air

Moving back to the old site

There is a lot of speculation on what will happen to the plot of prime real estate after the Olympics. While there have been rumours that the fish market will move back to its old location after the games, this seems extremely unlikely and the gossip was mainly fuelled by the contamination issue of the new Toyosu site. However, the risk seems to have been mitigated, and with the moving cost estimated at upwards of 600 billion yen (approx. 5.42 billion USD), it is very unlikely that it will be only temporary and reversed.

Furthermore, the new Toyosu site is almost twice the size of the current Tsukiji facilities, another sign that the market has permanently outgrown its original home.

Cashing in on casinos

Other rumours that it will be used to open a casino to bring in money from foreign visitors during the Olympics can also be dismissed with confidence. While the law legalising gambling resorts was passed in July this year, most Japanese politicians are not exactly comfortable with it, and casinos will be most likely relegated to the outskirts of towns. 

Food theme park

Initially, the Metropolitan Government planned to sell the land to real estate developers to pay for the costly move and construction of the new seafood market. However, Tokyo Governor Koike deemed this inappropriate in a 2017 interview and instead emphasised that she wants to preserve the history and cultural value of Tsukiji, perhaps by creating a "food theme park" that would continue to attract visitors and tourists.

At the moment, nothing has been decided. A panel consisting of experts in business management, culture and urban development was formed by the metro government to seal Tsukiji’s fate. It has met twice so far, with no resolution announced yet.

Cheap real estate 

Finally, for those hoping to snap up a bargain by acquiring real estate in the vicinity of Tsukiji for a cheap price: local residents are very aware that the upcoming developments will gentrify and change their neighbourhood forever, and land prices here have been on the rise since the announcement of the move. They are steadily climbing, though still cheaper than many other Chuo-ku areas.

While land price appreciation is certainly a possibility, it is not guaranteed.

By Mareike Dornhege

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